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Executive Summary

Newly licensed stores continue to make headlines as regulators and MSO’s tout these openings. Since they are the primary customer facing license along with delivery and consumption lounges, it is no wonder their comings and goings are chronicled. The 4th quarter had 31 states issue 250 new licenses across the country. New York laid claim to 31% of those new “doors” in the quarter.

Dispensary/Retail Key Findings (2025)

• There were 13,309 active store licenses at the end of 2025.
• 31 states added stores by the end of Q4, up from 23 in Q3.
• 250 store licenses were added by the end of Q4, down from 414 in Q3.

Retail Cannabis Market Trends – Q4 2025

By the end of 2025, cannabis retail operated in a more complex and constrained environment than at any point since early adult-use expansion. While licensing activity continued, operators faced intensifying pressure from price compression, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting consumer alternatives.

Store growth slowed meaningfully after alate-summer peak. Monthly issuance data shows a clear acceleration through mid-2025, culminating in September—the strongest month of the year for new store licenses—followed by a marked slowdown in Q4.

The hemp-derived THC market shifted from expansion to contraction risk late in 2025 as policymakers moved to close loopholes governing intoxicating hemp products. This may create opportunities for licensed retailers, but recapturing demand will depend on pricing, convenience, and product differentiation.

Federal cannabis rescheduling remained unresolved through year-end 2025. While potentially impactful, Schedule III did not alter operating realities during the year, leaving retailers to compete under existing tax and regulatory frameworks.

Despite 31 states issuing at least one new store license in Q4, growth remained concentrated in a small number of expansion markets—most notably New York—intensifying competition within those states.

Dispensary/Retail

Store openings still generate news and press releases. As the primary customer-touching license, they generate the most interest. They also face stiff competition from the illicit market as well as smoke, vape and CBD shops in some states. The graph below shows the very slow Q4.

In the Store Leaderboard, New York has held onto their leadership position since Q4 2024; and accounted for 25% of all new store licenses issued in Q4 nationwide.

The following table highlights the total census of cannabis retailers by state. Oklahoma still leads the nation even with all the licenses that have shuttered, and the ongoing moratorium. Even though these are year-end numbers, we do expect to see some movement in these figures due to late and revised returns from states like Minnesota and New Mexico.

Conclusion

Despite market headwinds, consolidation, and competition from hemp and illicit channels, the number of licensed stores continues to inch upward—demonstrating the resilience of the cannabis retail sector. Growth remains concentrated in markets like New York, California, and Michigan while mature states work through price and saturation pressures. Minnesota continues to be a focus for many in the industry as they continue to issue new licenses.

Author

Ed Keating spearheads Emerald Intel’s engagement with regulators worldwide, gathering and analyzing corporate, financial, and licensing data to map the evolving cannabis landscape. He is the author of the Emerald Insights blog and host of the Cannacurio podcast. Ed holds a degree from Hamilton College and earned his MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He currently serves as Chief Economist at Emerald Intel.

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